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Walmart gets Go-ahead in South Africa

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Walmart Africa

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retailer, can go ahead with its 17 billion rand ($2.2 billion) purchase of a controlling share of a South African chain, a South African regulatory appeals body said Friday.

The Competition Appeal Court upheld a ruling last year by the Competition Tribunal, the government agency charged with promoting competition and protecting consumers.

The appeal court, however, did call in its ruling for a study to determine the best way to protect small producers who might not be able to compete with foreign producers from whom Wal-Mart can import cheaper goods. Wal-Mart and Massmart had already agreed to spend 100 million rand (about $13 million) over three years to help farmers and other South African suppliers gear up to do business with Wal-Mart.

The appeal court also called for the reinstatement of 503 workers who lost their jobs in what unions said was a step by Massmart to make itself more attractive to Wal-Mart.

South African unions and some government officials worry Wal-Mart’s arrival will hurt jobs and local manufacturing. Wal-Mart and Massmart contend that together they will be able to offer low prices and a range of goods that will benefit South African consumers.

The appeals court said Friday that “there was insufficient evidence to conclude that the detrimental effects of the merger would outweigh the clear benefits.”

Potential investors had said they were closely watching for the ruling, which could signal South African openness to foreign investment. The Wal-Mart-Massmart partnership has been operating in South Africa since last year pending Friday’s ruling.

Wal-Mart is entering Africa for the first time with the Massmart deal, and hopes to exploit Massmart’s experience in South Africa and further north as a stepping stone to doing business across Africa.

In a joint statement Friday, Wal-Mart and Massmart said they were “keen to work with interested parties to develop local suppliers and producers.”

Massmart CEO Grant Pattison added: “It is important to emphasize that notwithstanding the differences of opinion that have been expressed during this process, we want to build good relationships and enter into constructive partnerships with government, organized labor and other interested parties.”

In a joint statement Friday, the government’s ministers of agriculture, economic development and trade, who had challenged the deal, said they welcomed the appeal court’s attempts to take into account the interests of small business.

“This has been at the heart of government’s case during all the legal proceedings in this matter,” their statement said.

Mike Abrahams, spokesman for the South African Commercial, Catering and Allied Workers Union, conceded in an interview that the way was open for Wal-Mart to operate in South Africa, but said the labor movement would work at the bargaining table to try to influence how the company operated. Abrahams, speaking to AP, did not rule out strikes as a tool.

Dangerous Elections in Divided Societies: the Lesson of Côte D’Ivoire

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Free and fair elections are undisputedly the best way to bring about change of government and consolidate democracy. However, certain pre-conditions must hold if the above objective is to be attained. Otherwise, much damage could result. The Côte d’Ivoire case teaches us lessons that should be a warning ahead of the planned November 28, 2011 elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

After repeated postponements over a lengthy five year period, Presidential elections finally took place in the West African Republic of Côte d’Ivoire in late 2010. They were held mainly as a result of constant international pressure on the reluctant incumbent –who found multiple excuses to overstay his term by five years, having little inclination to yield power. They finally took place despite the fact that roughly one half of the country was under the control of a rebel movement whose initial aim, 8 years earlier, had been to stage a coup to remove this President and control the whole country. The rebellion failed to achieve its central objective: regime change; but it did not fail entirely. It kept control of the northern half of the country, where the population was mostly favourable to its aims, since northerners generally felt discriminated and unjustly treated by the southern-dominated central government. Even if the latter was able to prevent the rebellion from fully succeeding, it was never able to completely eliminate its continuing hold of the northern region. Over more than seven years, with the aid of foreign parties, innumerable schemes were proposed to reconcile the two forces and to bring the north into the fold. Ultimately an appearance of cooperation and progress towards unity was achieved, without really having resolved the underlying grievances.

The Presidential elections of October 2010 took place in this context, once the incumbent –feeling certain that he would win- finally agreed to their holding. These elections were expected–primarily by members of the international community- to somehow consolidate future peace and unity in Côte d’Ivoire.

From 2004 onwards, the Center for War/Peace studies (CW/PS) ( www.cwps.org ) held the view that elections in Côte d’Ivoire under the then current conditions would not bring peace, but rather the opposite. It postulated that a transitional period would be necessary before competitive elections could be held, during which time the country was to be governed by a team of technocrats strongly supported by international peace keeping forces.

This transitional government would need to address the fundamental problems of the country, namely: discrimination against important ethnic and religious groups, corruption and nepotism, disrespect for the rule of law, and the lack of authority of the central government over the significant rebel-controlled areas. Free and fair elections of a democratic representative government, which could bring peace and stability to the country, could only be held once these problems were successfully dealt with.

Multiple CW/PS representations to UN member states, especially Security Council members, aimed at promoting this view unfortunately went unheeded. There seemed to be a reluctance to fully acknowledge the serious situation facing Côte d’Ivoire, and a reluctance to invest in the expenses needed for the proposed preventive course of action. Instead, continuous futile negotiations to fix an election date took place under international auspices, while inside the country the situation grew worse and worse. After many postponements, a set election date could finally be respected as the incumbent felt secure that he would win. A first round was set for end October 2010 with a second round one month later in case no candidate obtained an absolute majority. To his surprise and chagrin, the incumbent came only marginally ahead in the first round and lost the second one. International observers considered the election acceptably fair and the UN, which had been involved in its implementation, certified the outcome of both rounds. Nonetheless, after the final round the incumbent engaged in a crude fraud so as to be proclaimed as the legitimate winner. This caused a strong and even violent rejection of him by large segments of the Ivoirian people.

Ultimately, the scam did not work. The country became deeply polarized, neighboring African states, worried about the serious regional security threats to themselves posed by continued conflict and instability in Côte d’Ivoire, attempted various diplomatic and financial pressures on the looser to get him to accept the outcome of the vote. The gravity of the unfolding situation eventually spurred major powers to also increase their pressure through economic sanctions and even military means. An alarmed UN Security Council ordered an increase in peacekeeping troops in the country, and the former colonial power, France, increased the number of its troops in the country supporting the UN forces.

During four months Côte d’Ivoire was shaken by inter communal violence, destruction of lives and property, extensive human rights violations, and gradual paralysis of economic life, with all the suffering and costs this implied. Already existing wounds were greatly deepened among the various communities that make up Ivorian society. In early April 2011, until the election loser could finally be dislodged from the presidential palace and arrested by former rebel troops -now loyal to the election winner- and backed by UN peacekeepers, the country experienced conditions of civil war. The crisis came to an end on April 11, 2011. After which the election winner could finally take command and begin leading the country to normality.

The negative legacy of the election process has been enormous for the Côte d’Ivoire. Over 3000 lives were lost according to official figures, with the actual figure being in all probability much, much higher. Thousands and thousands of people have been displaced, many fleeing to neighboring countries where they still remain, physical infrastructure has been destroyed, the economy has shrunk, education has been disrupted, and great hardship has hit a large sector of the population. Gross human rights violations have taken place, as reported by leading Human Rights monitoring organizations, and communal grievances have been exacerbated. For the international community, the cost of diplomatic activities and the active deployment of increased peacekeeping troops have been significant.

On the positive side, it can only be said that the change of regime to a seemingly more competent team that took place, is expected to be beneficial for the future development of the country.

But the cost of this change has been enormous. In retrospect, we can only wonder if the 2004 CW/PS proposal of appointing an internationally-backed transitional technocratic government to reconcile and unite the country, as a pre-condition to holding competitive elections, would not have been a better and less costly course of action.

The Ivorian experience suggests that while democratic elections may be a positive way to bring about regime change and usher in a better new era, they are not by themselves a sufficient way to achieve these worthwhile goals. Unless there is a deep respect for the rule of law backed by strong state institutions and sufficient civic maturity, elections may only bring about further conflict and instability. To ensure successful elections in such cases, the necessary backing to secure acceptance and respect of the outcomes must exist. If the resources and means are not present locally, they must be contributed from abroad. International community election support through the UN must include this aspect. The Ivorian example shows the need for profound new thinking on the matter. A new paradigm is needed.

The issue becomes urgent on the eve of presidential elections scheduled for the Democratic Republic of the Congo in late November 2011, -which also augur at best not to go very smoothly, and at worst to lead to major upheavals in that vast and populated country at the heart of the African continent. Well-known international observers like the Crisis Group and the Carter Institute have already reported that conditions for free and fair elections are not yet met. But the local authorities, including its National Independent Electoral Commission (whose independence is indeed very questionable) have failed to agree. The already two week old election campaign is already bloody, especially in one of the vast and richest provinces in mineral resources, where supporters of the main opposition party are clashing with those who support the incumbent president on ethnic grounds!

DRC: Only a ‘Team of Rivals’ Can Defeat Kabila

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Against the backdrop of Africa’s first revolutions since the fall of the Berlin Wall (notably in Tunisia and in Egypt), a gruesome post-electoral conflict in Cote d’Ivoire, and the election of opposition leader, Michael Sata, in Zambia, the legacy of President Joseph Kabila Of the Democratic Republic of Congo – who has been in charge in Kinshasa for more than 10 years, five of them without a popular mandate – will come under strong challenge.

From the outset, the DRC’s electoral process has been marred by threats to its legitimacy.

Firstly, the ruling Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et le Développement (PPRD) changed the electoral law in January, scrapping the possibility of a second-round run-off and thus making whoever wins most votes in the first round the winner – whether or not the candidate gains a majority. Given that the next incumbent could be elected with a mere 15 percent of the vote, this will taint the legitimacy of the presidency.

Secondly, Kinshasa has witnessed a string of violent acts since Etienne Tshisekedi, the leader of the Union pour la Démocratie et le Progrès Social (UDPS), registered officially his candidature in August. The headquarters of the UDPS have been vandalised and set alight in what appears to have been a revenge attack after the PPRD offices were ransacked by unidentified mobs. And the offices of the RTLV television and radio station, which is sympathetic to Tshisekedi, have also been set alight and completely destroyed.

Surprise comeback
Tshisekedi made a surprise comeback to the political scene late last year after his detractors had declared him both politically and physically dead. His return to Kinshasa, after years of illness which had forced him to live in Belgium, drew huge crowds of supporters to Ndjili Airport, the Stade des Martyrs and to his home district of Limete. The turnout confirmed his status as the leading opposition figure, particularly since Jean-Pierre Bemba, the runner-up in the 2006 election, is languishing in jail in the Netherlands, where he faces war crimes charges in the International Criminal Court.

There is no doubt that Tshisekedi’s popularity prompted the ruling party, with its majority in the National Assembly (NA) and in the Senate, to discard a second-round ballot. It appears that Kabila is banking on opposition forces remaining fragmented – although he seems also to have hedged his bets by registering as an independent candidate.

No plan B 
As if to confirm the correctness of his strategy, several other contenders have emerged as either opposition or independent candidates. However, Kabila and his ruling party have no credible Plan B should most of the presidential candidates stage a last minute move to unite in order to unseat the incumbent.

The task may be Herculean. But its achievement is possible. Vital Kamerhe, a former speaker of the NA ousted after a fallout with Kabila, Leon Kengo wa Dondo, current Speaker of the Senate and former collaborator of Mobutu, Nzanga Mobutu and Oscar Kashala have all had run-ins with Kabila and all are serious contenders. Put differently, Kabila is their common enemy.

US history
Those seeking a way to bring opposition contenders together could take lessons from two administrations in United States history. In 1860, Abraham Lincoln demonstrated profound self-confidence and unexpected greatness by appointing “a team of rivals,” drawing for his Cabinet from the ranks of those who had opposed him during the Republican primary elections. Similarly, in 2008 Barack Obama demonstrated courage and a commitment to America’s unity by appointing Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.

Striking resemblances
While the DRC is not the United States, there are striking resemblances. Lincoln was, in the words of historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, “accustomed to relying upon himself to shape events… displaying a fierce ambition, an exceptional political acumen, and a wide range of emotional strengths, forged in the crucible of personal hardship”. One might say just the same of Obama and the Tshisekedi of 2011. Lincoln and Obama took power in troubled times, just as Tshisekedi is seeking the rebirth of a DRC destabilised by years of civil and regional wars, as well as persistent dysfunction and the collapse of the state.

Tshisekedi’s popularity and enduring struggle for democratization places him in a position to be an architect of a united opposition made up of rivals whose positions are not irreconcilable.
Kamerhe, for example, has told whoever who wants to listen that he is willing to work with Tshisekedi. His fallout with Kabila is too recent for him easily to take on the mantle of a leader of the opposition; he was Speaker until 2009. And he has to live down his undeniable role as kingmaker in 2006, when he campaigned and delivered Kabila’s victory in the East.

Kengo wa Dondo
Kengo wa Dondo is currently the constitutional number two in the country by virtue of his position as Speaker of the Senate. His rivalry with Tshisekedi dates to the Mobutu era, during which he often held key senior positions, including the position of Prime Minister in 1996, at Tshisekedi’s expense. Accolades and a good ambiance characterized a meeting Kengo had with Tshisekedi in Brussels on September 29, but no clear agreement of alliance.

After Tshisekedi’s nomination by more than 80 political parties as a common candidate of the opposition, he is in a position to reach out to Kamerhe, Kengo and other political groupings to ensure that the opposition vote is not split. And, even without a united vote, he could still be elected under current voting rules and form a team of rivals after the the polls, taking into consideration the realm and representivity of each opposition candidate.

Opposition candidates have to strike a deal to ensure democratic change in the DRC. For this to happen, Tshisekedi needs to capitalize on his long history and reputation in DRC politics to usher in what would be an unprecedented and long overdue victory for popular democracy, which is essential for the birth of a new DRC where people’s aspirations will take centre stage. In so doing, Tshisekedi would keep his “unflagging faith” in the DRC’s cause alive.

Violence in U.K. Causes Fear In African Immigrant Communities

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Cities in England suffered a fourth night of violence, causing fear and anxiety in many African immigrant communities in London, Manchester, Salford, Liverpool, Nottingham, and Birmingham.

Uganda’s deputy High Commissioner to London, Isaac Sebulime, told the Uganda’s Daily Monitor that the mission has closely monitored  the impact of the riots on the Ugandan diaspora, but have heard no reports of Ugandans being affected by the violence yet.

Three men from the Asian Muslim community were killed after being hit by a car in Birmingham on Tuesday night as they tried to protect their property, BBC News reported.  ”There are pockets of our society that are not just broken, but are frankly sick,” David Cameron said.

Over 800 people have been arrested, and more than 250 charged so far.  Some London courts are staying open all night to charge people with disorder and burglary.

“They are burning buses and cars- people are having a hard time trying to get to work or move around,” Brenda Atieno, a Kenyan living abroad in West Drayon, told the Nation.

Capital FM reported that many Kenyans in the U.K. were staying inside their homes or taking shelter with their friends to escape the violence.

Nigeria and Ghana also canceled a friendly match, to the disappointment of organizers and spectators, due to the violence in London, the Vanguard reported.

Riots began on Saturday after a peaceful protest in Tottenham after Mark Duggan, 29, was shot and killed by police.

A New Approach to Transnational Investigative Journalism: an African Perspective

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On the occasion of its tenth anniversary, the German association of investigative journalism Network Recherche, organized a panel discussion on the importance of transnational investigations in investigative journalism. The event was held in Hamburg on July 1 and 2.

Three specialists in this field shared their experiences with a very mixed audience: Blaz Zgaga from Slovenia, Anna Marie Cumiskey, from UK and Eric Mwamba, chairman of FAIR, the Forum of African Investigative Reporters, the only African delegate. Western audience appreciated very much Eric Mwamba’s presentation as a new perspective on transnational investigative journalism. Using his articles “Killing soccer in Africa” and “Social bandits”, Eric Mwamba talked about how FAIR involved many qualified journalists in the choice of the subjects, the procedures to choose the team, criteria, methods, collaboration of media and how local crime has ramifications on the international level.

Below is part of his presentation.

Soccer corruption in Africa and worldwide was entering the spotlight in 2009, when it was clear that the World Cup was to be held in South Africa. Some FAIR members were already investigating, or had raised plans for more thorough investigations, into claims that the World Cup event would bring only good to Africa. The famous FIFA investigator and exposer of corruption, Andrew Jennings, had started talking with Nigeria’s top investigative journalist in the sports field, Olukayode Thomas. A FAIR team investigation was also conceptualized early in 2009.

Then, in november 2009, journalist David Ayuk was attacked in Cameroon. You may know that Cameroon is the home of FIFA deputy president and CAF president Issa Hayatou. David Ayuk was beaten up by a band of thugs soon after he had started investigating where Issa Hayatou got his wealth. He was so severely traumatized that he never wrote another story. Since he became a farmer. Thankfully, his editor, Chief Bisong Etahoben, who directs the only investigative weekly in Cameroon; Olukayode Thomas from Nigeria; Anas Aremeyaw Anas from Ghana, Dumisani Ndlela from Zimbabwe, Ken Opala in Kenya and others, came together under the FAIR umbrella to carry the story forward. This was now a FAIR transnational team investigation. And it was even more than that: it was an Arizona project.

The name ‘’Arizona project’’ comes from a similar initiative that was taken for the first time in Arizona, in the US in 1976. When reporter Don Bolles was killed by criminals he was investigating, the American investigative journalists association IRE -IRE is FAIR’s big sister- called out its journalists to come to Arizona to finish the story. They did. Thirty-eight reporters, working for twenty media houses, then published the story that the criminals who killed Don Bolles had tried to keep quiet. FAIR thought that, after the attack on David Ayuk, we should attempt something like that. Even though the circumstances were different, the same message should be given by colleagues of a journalist who was attacked. That message is: “You can silence a journalist, but you cannot kill the story.”

Our story covered soccer corruption and crime, and international complicity by FIFA, in eight African countries. We were able to show that FIFA is not on the side of soccer development in the third world, but on the side of the corrupt plunderers of our countries.

Our story was published in all eight African countries that were covered, in widely read media, it has been quoted by radio and TV and was carried in four western countries -the US, the UK, the Netherlands and Spain. In Cameroon and Ivory Coast, the consequences were immense. A tsunami of publicity led to what is now a formal enquiry. Soccer discontent in Ivory Coast, galvanized by the exposure we created, played a part in the recent removal of president Laurent Gbagbo.

So in our way, we can say that we conducted a fairly successful Arizona project. We were even congratulated by sister organisations in other parts of the world for keeping the idea of the Arizona project alive. We don’t hope that another reporter gets attacked for doing an investigation, of course. But IF it happens, we hope that we, and other colleagues, will be ready again to finish the story. Because the silencers must not win. Besides the fact that this transnational investigation was an Arizona project, I must also still say something about what a transnational investigation as such means to us. We have done four ‘TI’s, as we call them and only the soccer TI was an Arizona project. So, ‘Arizona’ or not, the true meaning of a well-executed TI is the international impact that it has.

A story about a corrupt person in your own country is only a story about an individual, and even a story about a corrupt government is only really material to the people who are governed by that government. But if you look at corruption, exploitation or crime with a transnational focus, you start to see patterns. A company that bribes leaders in one country does the same in another. A failing state in once country has parallels with a failing state in another.

You start to see that there are causes, and consequences, that have material meaning for all of us. For example, our ‘Social bandits’ TI showed that people in some African areas start to depend more on ‘Robin Hood’ type gangs than on their governments. This raises questions that we are all interested in, for example about development aid. A new project that we have in the pipeline wants to research the rich Africans -a kind of Forbes list for Africa.

Again we hope that it will raise many questions that it will break through stereotypes and of course we hope that it will again have an international impact. We hope it will be interesting to YOU. We hope that we can on the basis of transnational investigations, start talking to each other about things that we are all curious about. And maybe, just maybe, then we can start to talk about doing more and more investigations, also together. Together, as we say, dig deeper, aim higher and find more truth.

Kofi Annan: African Leaders Risk Squandering Growth

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The poor quality of leadership in Africa risks squandering the continent’s rapid economic growth, former UN chief Kofi Annan has warned.

Addressing a World Economic Forum meeting in South Africa, he criticised African leaders for clinging onto power rather than developing their economies.

Africa-wide growth rates of 5.5% were impressive, he said.

But he said a “leadership deficit” meant little was being done to create jobs and lift millions out of poverty.
Spread of revolutionary fever

The former UN secretary general, who is from Ghana, criticised what he called “low-quality growth” – the over-reliance on unprocessed commodities and insufficient investment in manufacturing and infrastructure.

He lamented that leaders failed to develop their economies by harnessing resources to deepen trade between African nations and said economic growth must lead to new jobs for young people.

He also pointed to the revolutions in North Africa, saying it was “supreme arrogance” for leaders to seek to stay in power for 30 years.

“Those who have served two or three terms should make plans for their future out of government,” he told the BBC.

Mr Annan said the wave of unrest reminded him of the days of decolonisation.

“When one country becomes independent, another wants it. I see no reason why people now won’t want to do the same.”

The BBC’s Karen Allen in Cape Town, where more than 900 leaders are meeting at the World Economic Forum, says Mr Annan also singled out South Sudan.

Earlier this year the region voted in a referendum to split from northern Sudan – and in July it will become Africa’s newest nation.

It is one of the least developed regions in the world after several decades of civil war.

Mr Annan said the new country will need attentive leadership so that the potential of its substantial agricultural and mineral wealth is fully realised.

Congo: The Electoral Dilemma

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Congo Elections Dilemma

Congo: The Electoral Dilemma, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the circumstances under which the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is preparing for its second set of democratic elections.

Technical preparations are lagging. Neither the new electoral law, the voters list nor the budget are ready. Registration is already controversial, funding of the electoral cycle is incomplete, and the electoral calendar is problematic. President Joseph Kabila’s ruling party has launched its campaign before the official start of the electoral season, while the opposition is still struggling to find its “champion” for the presidential contest.

“Instead of signalling a consolidation of democracy, the elections present at best a logistical problem, at worst a new cause of destabilisation for a country still recovering from the wars that cost millions of lives at the end of the Mobutu era”, says Marc-André Lagrange, Crisis Group’s Senior Congo Analyst.

Congolese politicians and the international community should anticipate now the very real possibility that the constitutional deadline cannot be met, despite the calendar the Electoral Commission recently released.

Negotiating a transition agreement with the opposition, setting a deadline for organising the elections and limiting the business of government to routine matters during the transition would avoid having an unconstitutional postponement of the elections become a crisis of legitimacy.

Although the international community’s role is much more restricted in this electoral cycle than it was in 2006, when Congolese voted for the first time after the overthrow of Mobutu and the wars that followed, it should make clear to the political class that a deferred election would be better than a flawed one. Moreover, if the government does not take concrete steps to strengthen the electoral process, foreign partners should disengage so as not to lend it an aura of legitimacy.

The only way out of this Catch-22 situation is to both speed up preparations and negotiate an emergency electoral calendar and a political agreement to manage the postponement and consequent transition period that are likely to be necessary. More attention must also be paid to putting in place essential measures for transparency and inclusiveness, as well as a security system that will ultimately require important UN help.

In order not to become trapped in a biased process that could all too easily become as violent as that which Côte d’Ivoire recently experienced, the international community’s technical and financial assistance should be contingent on constant and precise monitoring of freedom to campaign, respect for political pluralism, political violence, access to state media, dialogue with the Congolese authorities and state funding for the Electoral Commission, as well as the opportunity for civil society groups to do their own monitoring of the process.

“The electoral dilemma the authorities face could spread to the streets, and if the present electoral calendar is not respected, the unconstitutional postponement of the vote will become a crisis of legitimacy”, says Central Africa Project Director Thierry Vircoulon. “While many bad features of the 2006 elections have disappeared, one remains the same: Congolese elections always pose a risk”.

Refugee Crisis in Niger: Sub-Saharan Africans Risk Everything to Flee Libya

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Tens of thousands of sub-Saharan Africans have fled Libya since the rebellion against Moammar Gadhafi began. Far from the eyes of the world’s media, a refugee crisis is building in Niger, where truckloads of migrants arrive every day after a dangerous journey through the Sahara Desert.

The sky blurs into the horizon. The thermometer reads 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in the shade, not that there is much shade to be found. Three police officers have sought refuge under the tin roof of their guard post on the edge of Agadez, a city in Niger. They are wearing combat fatigues and blue flip-flops. An ancient-looking Kalashnikov rifle is propped up against a wall made of clay bricks.

The area is a military security zone, one of the last outposts of Nigerien state power on the edge of the seemingly endless Sahara Desert.

Every now and again, one of the officers steps out into the sun, lifts a pair of binoculars to his eyes, and scans the horizon from northwest to northeast. This is where they always come from. “There are more and more of them,” he says. “They are now traveling in bigger convoys. That way they’re not such an easy target for the bandits.”

That evening, he does indeed spot a small cloud of light yellow dust heading out of the brown desert. The spot is followed by another, then another, and more still, coming ever closer. Half an hour later, an old Mercedes truck pulls up in front of the police station. The driver has tied a can of Coke under the hood to keep it propped open; the cooling system is clearly unable to cope with the heat.

The back of the truck is packed with bales of clothing and barrels. Canisters, chairs and even a mountain bike are hanging off the sides. Perched on top are the people. They wear Bedouin headscarves and sunglasses to protect themselves against the red-brown dust that covers them from head to foot.

They have traveled thousands of kilometers through the desert, with not enough food or water. Now they throw up their arms and cheer, elated to have escaped Moammar Gadhafi’s army, the fighting and the bandits. The dusty clay city of Agadez is their sanctuary.

In Search of a Better Life

On this evening alone, more than 5,000 sub-Saharan Africans will arrive from Libya. Originally from Niger, Nigeria, Chad or Burkina Faso, they had moved north in search of better fortunes in the country of Moammar Gadhafi. They had worked in Libya, and many of them had hoped to brave the passage to the Italian island of Lampedusa, located just off the African coast, and make it into the European Union. But the route to the coast is now blocked, because it leads directly through the zone in which Libyan rebels are fighting pro-Gadhafi forces. The migrant workers had therefore decided to travel back through the desert — back south.

Lawrence Zadie from Nigeria is one of them. Zadie, 31, is a construction worker and has an athletic physique that many Europeans of his age would be envious of. He worked for a Greek construction company in the Libyan city of Sabha for two years. But then Gadhafi’s soldiers came.

Zadie says he had originally gone to the north to earn “a pot of gold.” Today he is a refugee, just like all the others who have traveled to Agadez by truck.

Niger may be the world’s fifth poorest country, but by early April 30,000 sub-Saharan Africans had fled there from Libya. The International Organization for Migration believes that figure will rise to 60,000. About half that number is also expected in Algeria. Up to 20,000 are thought to have traveled to Chad, while more than 200,000 have escaped to Egypt. The foreign workers all want to return home, to places such as Ghana, Guinea, Liberia or Congo.

Hundreds of thousands of sub-Saharan Africans have moved from the south to the north since the 1990s. Only a few of them attempted the dangerous crossing over the Mediterranean to Europe. The revolutions throughout North Africa have now reversed the migratory trend.

European Union officials have already argued about what to do with the almost 30,000 refugees who have entered the EU via Lampedusa and Malta. And yet these are just a fraction of the people fleeing the fighting in Libya. A far greater number is beating a passage south. As result, one of the poorest regions of the world, already racked by drought, desertification, bad government, corruption, war, starvation, AIDS and malaria, suddenly has to cope with a flood of tens of thousands of people who had left this same area years ago — precisely because the situation was so hopeless.

Waved Through

At first the police officers on the outskirts of Agadez diligently stamped everyone’s passport. Now they just wave them through. That evening, more than 30 trucks packed with people and their worldly belongings rumble through, heading for the customs post of this city of 120,000. There they unload their cargo.

Agadez is a flat town of brick buildings and unpaved roads. In the past, it was popular with tourists who came to take pictures of the proud Tuareg in their headscarves, before traveling by motorcycle into the Aïr Mountains. But few whites have ventured into the area since al-Qaida terrorists began kidnapping employees of a French company that mines uranium in Niger. That’s one of the reasons why the mass exodus from Libya into this desolate region has gone largely unnoticed up to now.

Agadez currently has a bazaar, a historic mosque and a cattle market, where goats and camels are traded. Few of the houses have electricity or running water. It is not the kind of city that can cope with large numbers of refugees. The newcomers camp out with their possessions on the dirt roads between the houses, and try to sell some of their things to finance the next leg of their journey. But just how many compact stereos, mobile phones or woolen blankets does a desert city need?

Although the authorities have set up a refugee commission, there’s still not enough food and water to go round. Saudi Arabia has donated 30 white tents for the refugees, and these have been put up next to the soccer stadium. The Saudis had the inscription “Kingdom of Humanity” printed on the sides of the tents.

‘At Least I’m Alive’

Lawrence Zadie has managed to find shelter with the Red Cross, which only takes in the sick. He got in because his legs had been scraped as a result of being tossed to and fro on the back of the truck during his long journey.

In actual fact, he’s not really in bad shape physically. So he hangs around, immobile and resigned, in the shadows of his temporary shelter. Zadie has experienced something far worse than mere physical injury: His dream of a better life has been shattered.

The trip to Agadez cost him 170 dinars (around €96 or $143). In Libya he worked six days a week laying roads. “I’m now poorer than I was when I arrived in Libya,” he says. “But at least I’m alive.”

Three weeks earlier, soldiers’ boots had kicked against the door of Zadie’s portacabin in Sabha. Gadhafi’s men pushed him and his friends around, and rummaged through their belongings. They confiscated a laptop, a telephone and two pairs of Levi’s jeans. “Either you help us fight those spies and traitors, the rebels, or there’ll be trouble,” they said.

Zadie lays asphalt for a living. He has no idea how to use a gun. He was in Libya to build roads, and had no intention of fighting other people’s wars. He was also scared of the rebels, who almost overran Sabha. For weeks, rumors had been circulating that opposition forces would slaughter any blacks they found because Gaddafi had allegedly hired mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa.

Stranded for 13 Days in the Desert

When the soldiers left, Zadie packed his two bags and headed for the outskirts of the city, to where the Mercedes trucks heading to Niger waited.

Soldiers stopped the vehicle just a few miles down the road. They levied a supposed “fine” for an invented crime, and pocketed hundreds of dollars from every passenger. The truck passed countless roadblocks like this on its journey. Some of them were manned by uniformed men, some by robbers. Some of the armed men even claimed to be members of al-Qaida in the Maghreb. And every time, Zadie and his fellow passengers had to pay up.

Somewhere in the middle of nowhere, the truck broke an axle. Fortunately, the driver had a satellite phone and could call back to Sabha for a replacement. Unfortunately, the delivery times for Mercedes parts are long in the no-man’s-land between Libya and Niger. Zadie and the others used their blankets to build makeshift tents. They rationed their food and waited — for 13 days.

Three of them didn’t survive, dying of hunger, thirst or perhaps of some illness. Zadie doesn’t really know. “We buried them with our bare hands,” he says.

Dying for a Dream

Refugee organizations say an estimated 600 people a year drown because the overloaded or ramshackle boats carrying them across the Straits of Gibraltar or over to Lampedusa or the Canaries capsize. Nobody knows how many more die in the desert of thirst, at the hands of thieves or as a result of accidents.

Lawrence Zadie will travel home with the two suitcases he still has. He wants to go back to work for his former employer, even if he will only earn half of what he did in Libya.

But he hasn’t given up his dream of improving his lot. “My boss in Sabha promised to bring me back when the situation calms down.”

The Gilt of Despots

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For decades, a Swiss bank account was the favored hideaway for assets snaffled by the world’s most kleptocratic leaders. The roll of dishonor includes presidents Marcos of the Philippines, Mobutu of Zaire, Abacha of Nigeria, and “Baby Doc” Duvalier of Haiti. But these days Switzerland seems eager to clean up its reputation: last month authorities rushed to freeze the assets of ousted Tunisian leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Ivory Coast embattled president Laurent Gbagbo. And just last week a new Swiss law took effect that will make it easier to reclaim cash plundered by Third World tyrants.

The recent show of good behavior is surely tied to Switzerland’s deep embarrassment two years ago when the OECD put it on a “gray list” of tax havens that failed to meet international transparency standards. With financial services accounting for more than 10 percent of the Swiss economy, and with up to a third of all cross-border private investments being handled by Swiss banks, the country has been keen to reassure the globe that its banks are experts in wealth management rather than tax dodging.

But the new measures are unlikely to silence the skeptics. Take the new law on returning stolen funds. It will reverse the burden of proof from the victims (who often spent years convincing the court of a despot’s guilt) to the former dictators, who will now have to prove that their frozen assets were earned legally. But this law will apply only to failed states. So Haiti qualifies—but not Tunisia. And most experts agree that dirty money is still reaching Swiss banks despite their diligence.

Figures are hard to estimate, but Swiss banks may be holding $150 billion in looted assets, more than any other financial center, according to Global Financial Integrity in Washington. Says Daniel Thelesklaf of the Swiss-based International Centre for Asset Recovery: “Things have improved, but it is only the tip of the iceberg.” An iceberg that might still sink a country’s reputation.

Battle Pits Cocoa Speculators against Chocolate Makers

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Cocoa in West Africa

Food commodities — from wheat to rice to soybeans — have become objects of speculation. While cocoa speculators are threatening the survival of some of Germany’s oldest chocolate makers, entrepreneurs in Ghana are trying to give farmers a larger share of the profits.

Hasso Nauck lives in a world of things that look and smell beautiful. He collects antique cars and plays golf, and his workplace is filled with the scents of chocolate. As he sees it, it’s the best chocolate in the world — because he makes it. Pralines, cocoa truffles and chocolate-covered “ginger tips” are only three of the 110 items in the product line of Hachez. The traditional chocolate maker calls its product “chocolade,” a mix of the French and the German words for chocolate.

Nauck has been at the helm of Hachez, based in the northern city-state of Bremen, for the last 20 years. Although the chocolate business has always been relatively straightforward, this last year has seen some strange things happening.

For example, Nauck recently had to sit back and watch as a civil war erupted in Ivory Coast because two men couldn’t agree on who was president. A man named Alassane Ouattara, the country’s newly elected president, issued a ban on exports and took the country’s cocoa off the world market, though it meets roughly 35 percent of global demand.

When Nauck got into the chocolate business more than 30 years ago, the market was still a trader’s market; it was straightforward and easy to understand, and cocoa prices followed the rhythm of the harvests. But now Nauck could see how unrest in a faraway country was causing raw cocoa prices to skyrocket. At least for now, that was the peak of the turbulence. But it all began much earlier.

An Attack out of Nowhere

On the morning of July 15, 2010, Nauck realized he was being attacked.

It was 8:30 a.m. on a cloudless, beautiful day. Nauck was sitting at his desk made of polished Oregon pine on the fifth floor of an old factory building with a view of the church spires in Bremen’s market square. Nauck was going through his mail. The quarterly figures were looking good, the company had just hired 62 temporary employees and the economy was picking up steam. As he was going through his morning routine of checking prices and stocks online and glancing at a few websites, Nauck saw something that startled him.

The price of cocoa was dramatically high. In just two days, it had risen by 132 British pounds (€148, or $220), and it was still rising. During the course of that trading day, the cocoa price in London would climb to £2,732 per metric ton, a 33-year high. It made Nauck fear for his livelihood, his workers and his factory — in short, for everything he was about.

Nauck is the majority shareholder and managing director of Hachez, one of Germany’s 90 chocolate makers. The company was founded in Bremen in 1890 by Joseph Emile Hachez, and Nauck’s grandfather was already a co-owner in the 1920s. In 1990, when the company was in trouble, Nauck took out millions in loans and bought shares in Hachez. As the company’s new managing director, he updated its product line to suit modern tastes.

‘Choc Finger’

Anthony Ward, the man behind the attack on Nauck, is sitting in an office in London. The fund manager and trader has been given the nickname “Choc Finger,” a play on the James Bond villain Goldfinger. In the industry, though, it is meant as a term of admiration.

Anyone who understands the basic rules of Ward’s game, commodity speculation, can also understand why the global economy is plunging from one crisis to the next.

Ward doesn’t like journalists, and he hardly ever grants interviews. Instead, he employs two public relations agencies, whose publicists can say a lot without saying anything.

A broad-shouldered man in his early 50s, Ward grew up in an upper-class family with a long line of merchants. His grandfather reportedly supplied the British Navy with rum. His office is in a black-painted townhouse in Mayfair, London’s most exclusive neighborhood.

“When it comes to money,” says a man who worked with Ward for years, “he focuses on this goal alone.”

Cornering the Cocoa Market

Ward had long spoken of his ambition to corner the world cocoa market, and he had already attempted to do it twice before, in 1996 and 2002. He embarked on his third attempt on July 15, 2010.

The price of raw cocoa reacts to news from producing countries and the sizes and quality of harvests, but it also reacts to rumors. That is why there are always speculators on the cocoa exchange in addition to traders and chocolate makers, people like Ward in addition to people like Nauck. The former make bets on whether the price of cocoa will go up or down, gambling on whether there will be a surplus or a shortage of the commodity.

In trading terms, someone who believes that prices for a commodity like cocoa will rise is said to be “going long.” He orders the commodity for delivery at a later date, but at today’s price. In doing so, he hopes to secure an advantage by being able to resell it at a higher price when — as he expects — it gets more expensive. Someone who goes long anticipates scarcity.

On the other hand, someone who expects prices to fall is said to be “going short.” He sells a commodity for delivery at some point in the future, but at today’s price. In doing so, he hopes to be able to buy the commodity for resale at a lower price in the future. If he’s right, his advantage is that he is locking in the current, high price before the commodity’s price goes down. Someone who goes short anticipates a surplus.

Looking back, it would appear that Ward knew exactly how to bet on the price of cocoa because he knew for sure that it would become scarcer. And he knew this because — conveniently enough — he was actually the very person to make it scarcer in the first place. Indeed, Ward behaved like someone who sees a long line in front of the bakery on a Sunday morning and buys 400 rolls, only to resell them to the people waiting outside at double the price.

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